He is the European leader who stands up to Trump, says “no” to him, and has united Europeans in opposition to the war against Iran. The head of the Spanish socialist government, Pedro Sánchez, has become the reference point for progressive forces in the European Union. But Sánchez is also an illusionist. Charismatic, he fascinates, intrigues, or divides. He rides a favorable wave but remains in precarious balance.
His coalition is a fragile aggregate, undermined by corruption scandals. His wife, Begoña Gómez – under investigation by a combative judge for alleged influence peddling and embezzlement – has become his Achilles’ heel. Sánchez considered resigning before recovering and returning to the battle, determined to win the 2027 legislative elections thanks to an economic budget praised by the International Monetary Fund.
Returning from an official visit to China, Sánchez is organizing a global progressive movement meeting this weekend in Barcelona. Participants include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi, European Council President António Costa, and European Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera. A Sánchez-Lula summit will precede the forum.
The initiative fits into what El País defines as the “continuous fight against Trumpism in all its forms,” embodied both by the American president and his allies in Europe and Latin America. The goal is to organize progressive forces to counter the rise of ultra-conservative parties, increasingly capable of setting aside differences and coordinating politically – as demonstrated by the Patriots for Europe group, which also includes the far-right Spanish party Vox.
But Sánchez is primarily focused on the Andalusian elections on May 17. Once a socialist stronghold, the autonomous region has been governed since 2022 by the Partido Popular (PP), which holds an absolute majority. Polls place the PSOE behind the PP, foreshadowing a possible new setback. A negative result would increase pressure to call early general elections. Juan Manuel Moreno, leader of the Andalusian PP, aims to strengthen his role as a national right-wing reference figure. Meanwhile, a succession battle is looming to unseat Alberto Núñez Feijóo, considered incapable of leading the PP to victory.
Domestic politics is omnipresent. Spain has the peculiarity of exporting its political tensions to the European Parliament and more generally to EU institutions. Almost all of Sánchez’s decisions are linked to internal dynamics. The slogan “No to war” had already mobilized the Spanish left in 2003, after the US invasion of Iraq. The same reflex is found in support for criticisms against Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government for the total war on Gaza, with the risk of reigniting latent antisemitism. Opposition to Donald Trump’s demands to increase defense spending from 2 to 5 percent of GDP reflects an antimilitarist tradition rooted in the country’s political history and the legacy of Francoism.
Sánchez knows his electorate. These positions put the Spanish right in difficulty and strengthen his international visibility. The Financial Times called him “Trump’s sworn enemy in Europe,” highlighting the contrast with leaders who try to “flatter the vanity” of the American president. The Wall Street Journal dedicated its front page to him, presenting him as the European capable of saying “no” to Trump.
This media enthusiasm, however, overlooks the discomfort that Spanish positions cause within the EU. During the visit to China, the meeting with President Xi Jinping allowed Beijing to assert that “Spain firmly adheres to the one-China principle” – a formulation that implies support for Taiwan’s integration into the People’s Republic of China.
The worsening antagonism between Sánchez and Trump also risks putting NATO under pressure, at a time when the United States threatens to reconsider its commitment to the Alliance. His position has attracted harsh criticism from European diplomats at NATO, where Spain is often considered a “bad payer.” His support for a European army has also reignited a divisive debate that complicates efforts to strengthen common defense.
The plan to regularize nearly half a million irregular migrants has further heightened tensions, going against the general hardening of migration and asylum policies in the EU. French conservative MEP François-Xavier Bellamy denounced “a massive reward for illegality, without any serious security checks on the profiles that will be allowed to stay in Europe after having violated its borders (…). This magnet effect is not only a risk for Spain but for all our countries.”
Sánchez, for his part, keeps going. He continues to ride a wave supported by good economic results. But, as economist Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirós points out, the alleged “economic miracle” claimed by the government rests on fragile foundations. Although GDP growth exceeds the European average, the IMF attributes it mainly to tourism and public spending. Private investments remain stagnant and below pre-2019 levels. “The IMF signals to the government that favorable winds are running out,” Bernaldo de Quirós observes, “and that Spain needs fiscal discipline, freer markets, and less pressure on the private sector to ensure healthy growth.”
Sánchez exploits these favorable perceptions. But his position remains inherently unstable. He governs in minority with a heterogeneous coalition that includes regional independentist parties. The withdrawal of support from the Catalan nationalists of Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, has reinforced the image of a fragile government, forced into continuous compromises and engaged in a struggle for political survival in an increasingly polarized climate.
His personal image also suffers from corruption scandals involving people close to him. The trip to China was overshadowed by the news that the judge in charge of the investigation into his wife requested an indictment for charges such as embezzlement, influence peddling, corruption, and forgery. Begoña Gómez is at once a strength and a vulnerability, notes El País. She has been a central figure in Sánchez’s political career, “the only person to have accompanied him along a path that has fueled the legend of the Phoenix.”
Sánchez had considered resigning after his wife’s indictment in April 2024. The conservative opposition exploits the case to question the government’s integrity, while the PSOE denounces a politicization of justice and an attempt to destabilize the prime minister. If his wife were to be convicted, the issue of succession would inevitably arise – although, for now, it remains hypothetical.
Pedro Sánchez has often shown he can grasp the spirit of the times. Today he is described by allies such as Iratxe García Pérez, leader of the socialists in the European Parliament, as “a global reference point of progressivism.” But once placed on such a pedestal, the descent can happen in only one way: with a fall.
(Excerpt from the European Morning Brief)
