Thursday’s elections delivered a harsh verdict to Keir Starmer’s government. Labour suffered a heavy defeat in England, lost power in Wales after a century of dominance, and took another hit in Scotland.
The big winner is Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which won over 1,400 councillors and broke through in traditional Labour strongholds in the North. The Greens and Liberal Democrats gained ground, while the British political landscape now appears irreversibly fragmented.
Starmer took the blow by declaring he does not intend to resign, but tensions within the party are very high.
England: Reform reshapes the political map
In England, Reform UK emerged as the true victor of the election round. Nigel Farage’s party took control from both major traditional parties, breaking through especially in Labour strongholds in the North but also making inroads in Conservative territories, such as Essex.
As highlighted by the BBC, Farage celebrated a “historic change” and a “complete redraw of British politics.”
The Economist, however, urges caution: the national vote would project Reform around 31%, slightly down from previous local elections. A sign above all that the entire system is fragmenting.
The Labour débâcle
Labour lost more than 1,300 councillors and control of important local councils, from Hartlepool to Tamworth, up to Wandsworth in London.
As the Financial Times writes, Starmer admitted bluntly that “the results are tough, there is no way to sugarcoat them,” acknowledging he made “unnecessary mistakes.”
The party is now squeezed from both sides: on the right by Reform, which won over disillusioned voters in working-class neighborhoods, and on the left by the Greens, who secured their first mayor in Hackney and another success in Lewisham.
The Guardian highlights how many progressives have abandoned Labour for Zack Polanski, the controversial Green Party leader, disappointed by the slow pace of reforms and choices perceived as too centrist.
Among Labour members, discontent is palpable: some MPs openly call for Starmer’s resignation, while a poll among members reported by the Guardian shows that nearly half want a leadership change, with Andy Burnham clearly leading the preferences.
Wales and Scotland: the nationalist comeback
In the Welsh Senedd elections, Plaid Cymru became the leading party for the first time with 43 seats, ending 27 years of Labour government and a century of supremacy.
First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat and resigned. Reform came second with 34 seats, relegating Labour to third place.
In Scotland, the SNP secured its fifth consecutive victory, albeit without an absolute majority.
As noted by Reuters, for the first time three of the four nations of the United Kingdom (Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) are led by nationalist or pro-independence forces. A “seismic change,” according to Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin.
Conservatives struggling and the rise of Greens and Lib Dems
The Tories also suffered heavy losses, especially in their rural southern strongholds. Leader Kemi Badenoch spoke of “signs of renewal,” but the party still appears to be struggling.
As highlighted by the CNN, the Liberal Democrats achieved local gains for the eighth consecutive year, while the Greens confirmed their growth in major cities.
The overall picture, according to the New York Times, is clear: the old Labour-Conservative duopoly is in deep crisis. Great Britain has entered a multi-party era where at least six to seven political forces truly compete for votes.
Starmer holds firm
Faced with disaster, Starmer chose a line of firmness: “I do not intend to leave and throw the country into chaos.”
The prime minister announced a new government “reset” for Monday and received public support from several ministers, who urge the party to stay united instead of triggering an internal war.
However, as reported by the Financial Times, Downing Street is keeping an eye on potential rivals such as Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, and Wes Streeting.
Markets seem to have reacted with relative relief, with the pound rising and gilt yields falling, mainly fearing a possible shift to the left in case of succession.
A United Kingdom harder to govern
These elections reflect a deep malaise creeping through the country: stagnant economy, high cost of living, and widespread distrust of the establishment.
Reform capitalizes on right-wing and working-class discontent, the Greens on urban left discontent. The majoritarian electoral system, designed for a duopoly, increasingly struggles to represent a fragmented reality.
The parallel rise of Celtic nationalisms and an English populism embodied by Farage also poses new challenges to the unity of the Kingdom. As Reuters warns, there is a risk of “sleepwalking towards the end of the United Kingdom,” although at the moment no one seems ready to force an immediate break.
