There is a side effect of the war in Iran: the helium crisis. A gas that makes no news until it runs out, but whose absence can block semiconductor production, stop magnetic resonance imaging, and jam the global advanced electronics supply chain.
The central issue is Ras Laffan. The QatarEnergy complex, one of the largest industrial plants in the world, produces about one fifth of global LNG and one third of the world’s helium. The Iranian drone attacks on March 2 forced its shutdown. Weeks later, a ballistic missile attack caused significant damage to the facility. Repairs will take years, with an estimated 14% reduction in Qatar’s annual helium exports once the conflict ends. The company declared force majeure on March 4, suspending existing contracts.
The spot price of helium has already risen about 25% since the beginning of the year on Asian markets, double the increase recorded in Europe and the United States. But the spot data, which covers only 2% of the total market, anticipates what will spread to long-term contracts as deliveries in transit run out.
The industrial implications are immediate. Semiconductor manufacturers use helium to cool wafers during the etching process, and there is no technically feasible substitute. It is not a marginal ingredient: it is a physical process constraint. The main helium demand applications — electronics at 25%, medical at 23%, industrial at 18% — outline a vulnerability map that horizontally crosses the global economy.
The most exposed countries are South Korea and Taiwan.
Seoul imports about 65% of its helium from Qatar and 70% of its oil from the Middle East, almost all transiting through Hormuz. A double supply constraint for a country on which 80% of the world’s HBM chip production and almost 70% of global DRAM depend, with Samsung and SK Hynix as key players.
In Taiwan, TSMC imports 95% of its energy and almost all helium, with about 70% coming from Qatar and the Middle East. As if that were not enough, South Korea imports 90% of bromine, an essential material in circuit formation, from Israel.
The stock indices of Seoul and Taipei reflect this vulnerability: the MSCI South Korea is still up 38% year-to-date, but far from the February highs when it showed +57.7%; the MSCI Taiwan gains 16.7%, against a peak of +24.8%.
Those who benefit are American producers. The United States is the world’s leading helium producer, ahead of Qatar, Algeria, and Russia. Air Products, Linde, and ExxonMobil are in a structurally strong position that the war has further consolidated.
In conclusion: Iran has not only hit gas, oil, and fertilizers, it has hit helium, and with it the production backbone of global electronics. If Ras Laffan does not restart, the next semiconductor crisis will not arise from a trade war on tariffs, but from an invisible gas that no one had accounted for.
