(The Wall Street Journal, Jason L. Riley, April 22, 2026)
So far, artificial intelligence has not lived up to the most exaggerated promises. It has not cured cancer nor doubled human lifespan. This does not mean it will never happen, but it suggests that more sober assessments of how and when the technology will affect daily life are closer to reality. Daron Acemoglu of MIT, Nobel laureate in economics, estimated in a 2024 paper that AI will profitably automate about 5% of all tasks and add about 1% to the global economy over the next decade, a modest increase.
Since ChatGPT arrived in 2022, alarmists have said white-collar workers were in danger. Yet, according to The Economist, since the last months of 2022 America has added about 3 million white-collar jobs, while blue-collar employment has remained flat. Some professions often cited as the first victims of AI, such as software developers, radiologists, and paralegals, are growing strongly.
Wages have kept pace: since 2022 real wages in the professional and business services sector have increased by 5%, those of clerical workers by 9%. American history is full of disruptive innovations that have increased productivity, creating many more jobs than they destroyed. Basic income programs are a solution in search of a problem. To the extent that they discourage work and end up subsidizing idleness, they worsen the problem.
1. The biggest risk of AI is foolish policies driven by fear
“So far, artificial intelligence has not lived up to the most exaggerated promises. […] This pessimism is having an impact: Americans’ optimism about the labor market collapsed to 28% at the end of 2025.”
2. AI is not destroying jobs as feared
“Since ChatGPT arrived in 2022, alarmists have said white-collar workers were in danger. Yet America has added about 3 million white-collar jobs, while blue-collar employment has remained flat.”
3. Resisting innovation is as wrong as exaggerating its impact
“Resisting AI innovation is as wrong as exaggerating its immediate impact and needlessly frightening American workers. The way forward is neither industrial policy nor a bigger welfare state, both with poor track records.”
4. The concrete opportunities of AI
“While the national debate focuses on which jobs AI might eliminate, one of the most concrete areas where the technology can instead create new ones is being overlooked.”
5. The danger of fear-driven policies
“The biggest risk of AI is foolish policies driven by fear. […] Basic income programs are a solution in search of a problem.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
