(The Wall Street Journal, Benoît Morenne, April 8, 2026)
The war in Iran has created a new energy shock that is benefiting Venture Global, the second largest U.S. exporter of liquefied natural gas after Cheniere Energy, thanks to an unorthodox business model that allocates a high share of volumes to the spot market, where prices can fluctuate widely.
With over 30% of its deliveries this year available for spot sale, Venture Global is positioned to benefit from the near doubling of the Asian LNG benchmark and the European price rising close to $17 per million Btu, with Goldman Sachs analysts estimating a potential additional gain of $3 billion if European gas prices were $5 higher than their projections for the rest of the year.
The company’s shares, listed last year and valued at about $39 billion, have risen about 65% since the United States and Israel began attacks against Iran at the end of February, more than double the mid-December price, while co-founders Michael Sabel and Robert Pender, who own about 80% of the shares, see the value of their holdings rise to about $15.7 billion each.
Winning business model in the energy shock
“With an unorthodox business model that allows it to capitalize on global disruptions, Venture Global cashed in billions of dollars in 2022 when Russia choked gas deliveries to Europe and buyers sought new suppliers. Now Venture Global is positioned to repeat the scenario that could push its ambition not only to surpass Cheniere but also to overtake Qatar.”
Spot market advantage
“Unlike Cheniere, which sells most of its cargoes under long-term contracts, Venture Global reserves a large share of its volumes for spot markets, where prices can fluctuate widely. Over 30% of its deliveries this year are available for spot market sale. If spot prices soar higher, this can more than offset the thinner margin the company earns from its long-term contracts.”
Impact of the war on the sector
“The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most tankers, which has blocked LNG flows, and Iranian missiles have damaged Qatar’s liquefaction and natural gas shipping facilities. This has turned Venture Global’s available cargoes into hot commodities. The Asian LNG benchmark has nearly doubled since the war began.”
Growth and future ambitions
“Venture Global now operates two large terminals on the Louisiana coast and is building a third in the state. Last year it raised more than $33 billion, including debt and proceeds from its IPO. It has signed eight twenty-year supply contracts with customers including Japan’s Mitsui and Tokyo Gas and the Spanish utility Naturgy Energy. Its current contracts cover about 50 million tons of LNG per year but it has the capacity to produce 40% more volumes, which it can sell on the spot market.”
Founders’ position
“The company’s rise has established its co-founders Michael Sabel and Robert Pender as industry titans. Together they own about 80% of the company’s shares; each of their stakes is currently valued at about $15.7 billion.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
