As highlighted by the Guardian, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has sparked a severe energy crisis across the Asian continent, pushing governments to dust off coal – the most polluting fossil fuel – to fill the gaps left by the collapse of energy imports from the Middle East.
While climate experts are sounding the alarm on irreversible environmental and health damages, many analysts see this emergency as an opportunity to accelerate the transition to renewables, the only path capable of ensuring energy security without relying on geopolitical shocks and price fluctuations.
The Hormuz Strait blockade and the LNG collapse
The main cause of the crisis is the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass.
Added to this was the attack on a large export facility in Qatar, which removed nearly 30 billion cubic meters of LNG from the market, with over 80% of the deficit concentrated in the Indo-Pacific.
Henning Gloystein, director of Eurasia Group, described the market reversal in just four weeks: from a comforting surplus to a dramatic deficit, destined to cause not only price spikes but actual fuel shortages.
The last shipments that left before the escalation will arrive within a few days, after which the situation will worsen further.
The grand return to coal
Faced with the void left by LNG, Asian governments have reacted by betting on coal, the fastest and lowest-cost solution for those who have reserves.
South Korea has postponed the closure of coal plants and removed limits on energy production from this source. Thailand has increased the output of its largest coal plant. The Philippines, which declared a state of “national energy emergency,” are boosting their existing plants.
In India, where coal covers almost 75% of electricity generation, the government has ordered plants to operate at full capacity and skip scheduled maintenance. Bangladesh has also increased both domestic production and coal imports in March.
LNG between the myth of the “bridge fuel” and the reality of dependence
Until recently, LNG had been presented as the ideal bridge between coal and clean sources.
Asian demand was expected to double over the next 25 years, both for electricity production and for industrial sectors such as fertilizers.
Today, however, the same experts remind us that exported LNG actually emits more greenhouse gases than coal itself. Dependence on this source has made Asia particularly vulnerable: without Middle Eastern supplies, entire production chains risk collapse.
Experts’ alarm
Specialists have no doubts about the effects of coal.
Pauline Heinrichs, a researcher at King’s College London, describes it as “devastating and disastrous” for climate, air pollution, and toxicity. The current crisis, according to her, should represent a turning point: countries that already have a significant share of renewables prove to be much less exposed to these shocks.
Dinita Setyawati of Ember, a Jakarta-based think tank, is also clear: “It is not sustainable to continue depending on coal. Asia-made renewables are the only way to truly increase security and resilience.”
Gloystein notes that India, while increasing coal, is accelerating approvals for new wind farms and battery storage systems.
Emergency measures and prospects
To contain consumption, several countries have adopted drastic measures: the Philippines and Sri Lanka have introduced a four-day workweek for many public employees; Vietnam has encouraged working from home; Bangladesh has brought forward Eid al-Fitr holidays, closed universities early, and increased scheduled blackouts; Pakistan has moved school lessons online.
Experts warn, however, that this is not a temporary emergency. “This is not a problem that will be solved next week with a ceasefire,” Gloystein emphasizes.
Damage to plants and infrastructure will require years of repairs. Heinrichs urges governments not to “crystallize” the return to coal in long-term infrastructure: it would be a strategic and environmental mistake that would be paid for decades.
In summary, Asia is forced into a painful fallback choice, but it also faces a possible turning point: the crisis could finally convince policymakers that true energy independence comes from domestic renewable sources, which are more stable and less exposed to the winds of geopolitics.
