(The Daily Telegraph, March 24, 2026)
The war in Iran has damaged Qatar’s main gas facility and has practically closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking one-fifth of the world’s gas supplies and causing prices to soar. In response, countries heavily dependent on gas are fully restarting underutilized coal plants and increasing mining or purchasing coal from major producers like Australia and Indonesia.
Coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, seems to have risen from the dead. According to analysts, in Asia and even in Europe any utility or government that can switch from gas to coal is doing so right now. The coal revival could last well beyond the end of the conflict, especially since Qatar has warned that full production recovery could take years and the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be an unreliable conduit.
Countries that produce coal domestically, such as China and India, will see the strongest recovery, but large Asian importers like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are also switching from gas to coal. In Europe, Germany and Poland will do the same, while the United Kingdom, which closed all coal plants in 2024, no longer has this option. The lesson is clear: do not build your energy system on a single path, or you risk exposing it precisely when it is needed most.
Coal back in the spotlight
“In response, countries heavily dependent on gas are fully restarting underutilized coal plants. To fuel the generators, they are expanding mines or purchasing supplies from major producers like Australia and Indonesia. Coal seems to have risen from the dead.”
A revival likely to last
“In India and China, 85-90% of coal is typically supplied domestically, so they are now encouraging increased domestic coal production. I wouldn’t be surprised if coal has a broader revival over the next year, potentially longer.”
Lesson for Europe and the United Kingdom
“Countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam have never shut down coal. They have maintained more baseload sources, so when gas tightens, coal capacity can step in. If there is one lesson, it is this: do not build your energy system on a single path, or you risk exposing it precisely when it matters most.”
Political difficulties in Europe
“In Germany, the need for coal is more acute, given dependence on imported gas and the absence of nuclear, but political resistance is stronger. The biggest obstacle to returning to coal is the rhetoric that has become so deeply entrenched against it. Coal has a bad reputation.”
Risks and limits of the coal comeback
“If you cannot produce coal domestically, you are essentially replacing one import risk with another. Coal prices tend to rise when gas prices rise and have already jumped since the start of the war in Iran. There is also an increasingly limited supply pipeline, as few new mines are being commissioned.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
