The war in the Persian Gulf and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz are also impacting the agricultural fertilizer market. Approximately one third of the global trade of these products passes daily through this waterway, and the region is a significant production hub for urea and ammonia, among the main components of nitrogen fertilizers that promote plant growth.
Since the beginning of the war with Iran, Middle Eastern urea prices – which serve as the international reference, or benchmark – have risen by 44 percent, surpassing 670 dollars per ton. This price and supply crisis is putting Europe in such difficulty that Hungary – which among EU member countries is politically closest to the Kremlin – is exploiting the situation to request a relaxation of sanctions on Russia.
RUSSIA’S WEIGHT IN THE FERTILIZER MARKET
As explained by the Financial Times, Russia’s influence on the fertilizer market is even stronger than on oil and natural gas markets. The country accounts for 23 percent of global ammonia exports, 14 percent of urea exports, and – together with Belarus, which could be considered a “satellite state” of Moscow – 40 percent of potash exports, a compound used in potassium-based fertilizers. Currently, Russian supplies are advantaged because they do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and thus are unaffected by the logistical crisis.
A NEW GEOPOLITICAL LEVER
To assert its dominance in the market and gain as much advantage as possible – both economic and political – from the current situation, Russia decided on Tuesday to suspend ammonium nitrate exports, officially to prioritize domestic needs.
Kirill Dmitriev, special envoy of President Vladimir Putin for economic cooperation, wrote on X that “as the world enters the Era of Scarcity and global supply chains break, both Russia’s partners and adversaries will appreciate even more its critical role as one of the top three global suppliers of oil, gas, helium, fertilizers, grain, and other essential raw materials and products.”
REALITY CHECK: As the world enters the Era of Scarcity & global supply chains break, both Russia’s 🇷🇺 partners and adversaries will appreciate even more its critical role as a TOP-3 global supplier of oil, gas, helium, fertilizers, grain, and other essential commodities/products.
— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) March 22, 2026
Dmitriev’s message is primarily addressed to the European Union, which since 2022 has managed to drastically reduce imports of Russian natural gas – expected to be eliminated by 2027 – but remains dependent on its enriched uranium, for example. As for fertilizers, imports of Belarusian potash are banned and there are tariffs on nitrogen fertilizer imports from Moscow and Minsk. In 2025, Russian fertilizer exports to the European Union were worth approximately 2 million euros, but volumes have decreased following the introduction of new tariffs.
HUNGARY’S REQUEST AND THE UNITED STATES’ MOVE
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Minister of Agriculture István Nagy wrote a letter to the European Commission requesting a relaxation of trade restrictions on Russian fertilizers, arguing that the inability to access affordable supplies could impact agricultural yields and food prices.
Previously, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had written to the Commission President asking for the removal of restrictions on the purchase of Russian hydrocarbons, arguing that these represent “the most serious threat […] to the entire European Union.”
The United States, on the other hand, after issuing a thirty-day sanctions exemption to allow the purchase of oil and refined products from Russia, decided to ease sanctions on some Belarusian fertilizer producers, including the state company Belaruskali.
CAN RUSSIA REPLACE MIDDLE EASTERN FERTILIZERS?
An increase in fertilizer and related component exports from Russia and Belarus would still not be enough to compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern supplies.
Russian plants are operating at about 90 percent of their maximum capacity, and ammonium nitrate is also essential for making explosives for the military, so it will not always be available for export. As for urea, Russia is expected to export around nine and a half million tons this year, representing 15-16 percent of the global supply: but Gulf countries account for nearly one third of the market.
