Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Russia is receiving many purchase requests for its energy resources from numerous countries. The nations most interested in Russian oil are mainly Asian – Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, for example – which are heavily exposed to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and therefore need to quickly secure substitute supplies. Demand is so high that Russia is managing to sell its Urals crude at a premium of $5-8 per barrel compared to Brent, the international benchmark: this is an unusual dynamic – normally, Urals is sold at a discount – explained by the fact that Moscow does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz for marketing its hydrocarbons.
THE CEASEFIRE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN
Last night the United States and Iran reached an agreement for a ceasefire that should have the effect of “suspending” the war in the Persian Gulf for two weeks. But the logistical crisis, caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure, has not eased.
So far this situation has benefited Russia, which has been able to highlight not only its geographical position but above all its weight in the markets for agricultural fertilizers and fossil fuels.
HOW MUCH OIL CAN RUSSIA EXPORT?
Moscow is the world’s second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia: it produces about ten million barrels of crude per day and sells roughly half abroad; it also holds the largest natural gas reserves on the planet. However, according to calculations by Reuters, Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure could force Russia to limit oil production and reduce exports to one million barrels per day, that is one fifth of capacity.
PESKOV’S WORDS AND PUTIN’S PLAN
“Now that the world has decisively embarked on a rather severe economic and energy crisis, which worsens day by day, the market and market conditions in the energy and energy resources sector have completely changed,” Peskov declared. “We are receiving an enormous number of requests to purchase our energy resources from alternative sources. We are negotiating in such a way that this situation aligns as much as possible with our interests.”
In recent weeks, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could redirect its energy supplies away from Europe. Before the Kremlin ordered the attack on Kyiv, the European Union depended on Moscow for over 40 percent of its natural gas imports; last year, however, Russia’s share of total European gas supplies was 13 percent and is expected to drop to zero by 2027. The invasion of Ukraine, in short, has had the effect of distancing European countries from Russia, depriving the latter of the most profitable markets and forcing it to redirect fossil fuel sales – often at discounted prices, moreover – towards Asia. This shift from Europe to the East also concerns the Yamal LNG plant in the Russian Arctic, which has started shipping loads to China.
THERE ARE NO CONDITIONS TO RESTORE ENERGY TRADE WITH RUSSIA
Last month Putin also sent conciliatory messages to European authorities, trying to leverage the Middle East crisis to convince Brussels to reconsider the ban on Russian gas from 2027. “We are ready to cooperate even with the Europeans. But we need some signals from them showing they are ready and willing to cooperate with us and that they will guarantee this sustainability and stability,” he said. However, it is unlikely that the European Union will agree to restore energy trade with Moscow, considering all the political capital – and more – it has spent in recent years to carry out the detachment. Several pipelines connecting the Old Continent with Russia, such as Nord Stream and TurkStream, have also been damaged.
THE VETO BY MOSCOW AND BEIJING ON THE UN RESOLUTION FOR HORMUZ
On Tuesday, Russia and China vetoed, preventing its adoption, a United Nations resolution for the protection of maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the two countries, which hold veto power as permanent members of the organization’s Security Council, the resolution – presented by Bahrain – was biased against Iran.
Iran has been attacked by the United States and Israel, but for weeks it has been blocking the passage of virtually all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for the trade of fossil fuels, fertilizers, and chemical elements such as helium.
