Taliban Invasion of Kabul (August 15, 2021)
Contained impact. The PUN rises from €115.41 to €129.63/MWh (+12.3%) in 11 days. In the 2 weeks after, the average PUN is 112.59 vs 109.97 before: an increase of +2.4%. The PSV gas reaches its highest peak in just 2 days (+7.4%).
Russian Invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022)
The exceptional case. Devastating and structural impact. The PUN goes from €184.80 to €587.67/MWh: +218% in 12 days. The PSV reaches €2,527/MWh in 12 days (+220.6%). This is not a peak that easily subsides: it changed the market for months. Indeed, the real impact is seen in the average of the 2 weeks following the event: +77.2% for the PUN and +92.4% for the PSV.
Sabotage of the Nord Stream Gas Pipeline (September 26, 2022)
The paradox of already priced-in risk. On the day of the sabotage, the PSV already reaches its maximum peak (€1,758.93/MWh), then falls. The PUN at its maximum peak (€436.07) still marks +34.6% from the minimum, as does the PSV at +2.7%; but the general trend was already bearish after the peak, lowering averages by about 25%. This means that when risk is expected, the market anticipates it.
Escalation of Israel – Hamas Conflict (October 7, 2023)
Major impact. Hamas attacks on October 7. The PUN rises from €114.79 to €175.76/MWh (+53.1%) in 9 days. 14-day post-event average: 145.27 vs 117.49 before (+23.6%). The PSV shoots up from €295.68 to €566.77/MWh (+91.7%), bringing a post-event average increase of +16.7%.
Red Sea Crisis (November 19, 2023)
Moderate but sustained reaction. The maximum peak arrives on the 11th day (€155.35/MWh, +24.3%), bringing a 14-day post-event average to: +10.6%. For the PSV, the reaction is more contained, with the peak reaching €503.40/MWh, +13.3% in 8 days). The impact was real but not traumatic.
First Israel – Iran Conflict (June 13, 2025)
Measured response. The PUN rises from €110.57 to €136.57/MWh (+23.5%) in 10 days. 14-day post-event average: 122.08 vs 100.24 before (+21.8%). The PSV from €409.66 to €466.65/MWh (+13.9%) in 11 days, with a 14-day post-event average of +10%. The market incorporated the risk without panic: European stocks were high and alternative supplies diversified.
Second Israel – Iran Conflict (February 28, 2026)
Market memory amplifies. The PUN rises from €104.84 to €168.54/MWh (+60.8%) in 10 days, the second highest variation in the dataset. 14-day post-event average: 142.85 vs 105.12 before (+35.9%). PSV: from €338.22 to €624.94/MWh (+84.8%) in 10 days and the post-event average rises to +39%. Despite historically low starting prices, the reaction was disproportionate compared to the first Iranian attack, probably due to a memory effect.
Why and When Do Prices Rise?
The analysis reveals a recurring pattern. War does not strike chaotically but follows a rather precise trend.
- Is the impact immediate? The first reaction occurs within 48 hours after the event, but it is only the beginning. The maximum peak typically consolidates between the 9th and 10th day.
- How much does spending increase? Isolating the maximum peaks, the average increase is +60.9% for electricity and +63.3% for gas. However, the figure most faithful to the reality of bills is the average of the two weeks post-event: a structural rise of +21.1% (PUN) and +20.4% (PSV).
- How long does the emergency last? For “point” crises (Hamas, Houthi, Iran), the market tends to partially normalize within 3-6 weeks. In structural cases like Ukraine, the system may take over 18 months to regain balance.
Conclusions
Seven events in five years confirm a clear statistical pattern: the Italian energy market systematically reacts to geopolitical crises, with net PUN increases in six out of seven cases. Although the magnitude of shocks varies, the dynamic remains predictable, with price peaks tending to consolidate on average within ten days of the conflict.
Despite this sensitivity, diversification of sources and the use of renewables are increasing the system’s resilience. In the 2025-2026 biennium, the capacity to absorb shocks appeared more structured, mitigating the direct correlation between tensions and energy market trends.
(Excerpt from the Papernest report)
