There is a tropical country with less than a million inhabitants, facing the northeastern Atlantic of South America, that is experiencing an unprecedented economic boom.
As The Economist writes, dedicating an in-depth analysis to it, Guyana, until a few years ago almost unknown on geopolitical maps, has become the fastest-growing nation in the world thanks to offshore oil.
The economy has quintupled since 2019 and today, with the barrel price near $100, it is earning extraordinary revenues just as the rest of the world suffers from energy instability.
But behind the record numbers lie enormous opportunities and equally large risks: from extreme dependence on crude oil to the temptation to waste the sudden wealth.
An unexpected boom
Until recently, it seemed impossible to link conflicts in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz with the equatorial forests of Guyana. Yet, that is exactly the case.
Since 2019, the year production began in the new offshore fields, Guyana’s economy has grown at dizzying rates, quintupling in a few years and becoming the fastest in the world.
This exploit initially occurred despite relatively calm oil prices (an average of $69 per barrel in 2025). Today, even after the ceasefire, Brent hovers around $100, and for Guyana, this means a real gift.
Oil exports are growing faster than in any other country worldwide, transforming a marginal nation into one of the unexpected protagonists of the new global energy geography.
A flurry of good news
The rise in oil prices is just the latest chapter in a series of favorable events.
In September, centrist President Irfaan Ali won re-election, reassuring investors who feared a shift toward more radical positions. Two months later, in November, Ali appeared at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, donning the mantle of climate leader: he promised, albeit vaguely, to allocate part of the oil wealth to climate change adaptation.
Then came the January twist: American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator who for years had aggressively claimed a significant portion of Guyanese territory, particularly the Essequibo region.
His exit immediately unlocked previously off-limits areas of the Stabroek block, the large field located about 200 kilometers from the Atlantic coast, from which almost all the country’s black gold comes. A geopolitical change that opened new exploration and development prospects.
Record revenues and growth prospects
According to Raphael Trotman, former government minister, revenues are already coming in at a sustained pace: about $623 million per week, compared to $370 million before the conflict.
The consortium led by ExxonMobil, operating in the Stabroek block, aims to increase production by 2.5% to reach 940,000 barrels per day.
If prices remain near $100 in 2026, Guyanese fields would generate about $33 billion in gross revenues in a single year: 75% more than estimates before the crisis.
An even more significant figure considering that two-thirds of Guyanese oil ends up in Europe, which is paying substantial premiums to secure supplies. Adding about $10 per barrel in premium, the “war bonus” for Guyana exceeds 90%.
Profit sharing and investment acceleration
For now, the government collects only 14.5% of the value of each barrel, while the consortium led by the American ExxonMobil takes the largest share.
But rising prices are accelerating the recovery of historical costs borne by the companies: projections indicate these will be fully amortized by the end of 2026, a year earlier than expected. From that moment, the government’s share will sharply increase, potentially reaching 52% if there are no further expansions.
Global instability is pushing majors to invest more and faster. New explorations and developments are planned: this will delay the short-term increase of the government’s share but promises much more substantial revenues in the long term.
ExxonMobil’s frantic expansion
Oil companies are not wasting time. Currently, four projects are operational, each managed by a gigantic floating production and storage unit (FPSO) costing about $2 billion.
ExxonMobil is accelerating the arrival of the fifth FPSO, which should start pumping oil within a few months, a year ahead of schedule. A sixth is already under construction, while the seventh has been moved up to 2028.
In March, the company presented plans for an eighth project, the first dedicated to natural gas production in Guyana, and announced that a ninth will follow within a year. This is an impressive acceleration demonstrating confidence in the potential of the Stabroek block.
Dependence on oil
Even before the war, the government expected record oil revenues for this year: $2.8 billion.
In 2025, fossil fuel revenues already represented about half of the state budget (a level similar to Azerbaijan) and oil production accounted for three-quarters of GDP, a share even higher than Libya’s.
Radhika Bansal of Rystad Energy warns that the price shock will deepen this dependence further.
While oil profits soar, higher energy costs are hitting other sectors of the economy hard. The government responded by eliminating fuel excise taxes and asking GuyOil, the state distribution company, to contain price increases.
But private operators have still raised prices, prompting President Ali to call for “economic patriotism.”
The specter of the “resource curse”
This scenario brings back the classic specter of the “resource curse”; when a commodity boom ends up harming the rest of the economy. Guyanese politicians are aware of this and are trying to counter it.
Many strategic infrastructures are already under construction, including a new highway to Brazil, or completed, like the imposing Demerara River bridge.
Despite heavy spending on roads, schools, and hospitals, so far the government has managed to keep underlying inflation and the budget deficit under control, as recognized by the International Monetary Fund last year.
Concrete problems and risks of waste
However, signs of difficulty are evident. Since 2021, the cost of food and housing has increased by 75%. The oil industry is attracting the best workers, creating shortages in other sectors. Relations between the government and media have become more tense. The influx of petrodollars has fostered waste and, in some cases, forms of clientelism.
A telling example is the project to bring natural gas ashore and use it to generate electricity, replacing old and polluting fuel oil plants: it is years behind schedule and costs six times more than expected. Part of the problems stem from the choice to locate it in politically favorable areas to the government but with unsuitable geological conditions.
ExxonMobil even refused to build a second set of pipelines (also directed towards “friendly” areas) until there is sufficient demand.
Resisting the temptation to spend it all
Winston Jordan, former finance minister, is clear: the Guyanese sovereign fund should set aside most of this extraordinary wealth, and even more, to curb public spending. But with even higher revenues imminent, the temptation to “spend and splurge” risks becoming irresistible.
For the sake of Guyana, President Irfaan Ali and his allies will have to show iron discipline. Turning this oil boom into true and lasting development, rather than a bubble destined to burst, will be the real test of maturity for the country.
The stakes are very high: from a poor nation to a model of responsible resource management, or yet another example of how sudden wealth can become a curse.
