(The Washington Post, Riley Beggin, April 21, 2026)
The rise in fuel prices caused by the war with Iran is hitting American businesses and families hard, with diesel at $6.60 per gallon and the national average gasoline price at $4.05. Companies like Marvel Produce, which supplies restaurants and hotels, spend 25% more on truck fuel and have to pass the costs onto customers, while small business owners and ordinary citizens see their margins and household budgets shrink. Many interviewees in New York’s 17th congressional district, one of the most contested seats, express frustration with the Trump administration: some, like the Scicchitano couple or franchise owner Danielle Cifuni, say they will vote for change for the first time or are reconsidering their support, others like the elderly Stephen Jamieson or retiree Rafael Febiar feel betrayed and are motivated to vote against the Republicans.
The visible costs of gasoline, which voters see every day, risk turning the midterm elections into a referendum on the Trump administration, precisely as Republicans already start at a historical disadvantage in midterm elections. In New York’s 17th district, where in 2024 voters chose Kamala Harris for president but Republican Michael Lawler for Congress, the rise in fuel prices weighs on the monthly budgets of almost everyone. Lawler defends the war as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and promises prices will fall once the crisis is resolved, but Democrats accuse him of not opposing Trump enough and highlight the negative effects of Republican economic policy. Republican strategists admit there is a direct correlation between gasoline prices and presidential approval, and the drop in economic approval to 31% risks costing key seats.
Uncertainty about a return to normal oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked for seven weeks and a fragile ceasefire, worsens voters’ concerns about economic affordability. While Trump assures that prices will be low again by the midterms and that the economy is doing well, polls show that 60% of Americans disapprove of the strikes on Iran and 56% fear a negative impact on their finances. This visible discontent could shift the needle toward the Democrats in toss-up districts, making it harder for Republicans to maintain control of the House.
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
