As reported by a Reuters dispatch, last week the United States came close to a record not seen since World War II: it was on the verge of becoming a net crude oil exporter.
Exports surged near an all-time high, driven by urgent demand from Asian and European refineries which, after the outbreak of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, suddenly found themselves without Middle Eastern supplies blocked in the Gulf.
This is the clearest demonstration of how a regional conflict can overturn global energy balances in just a few days, forcing major buyers to seek crude oil anywhere, even on the other side of the world.
The Gulf paralysis
The conflict with Iran has caused the most severe disruption ever recorded in the global energy market. Iranian threats to navigation have blocked about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies that normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
For Asian and European refineries, accustomed to relying on those routes, it was a real red alert: immediate alternatives had to be found.
The result was a vertical leap in demand for American oil, the most available and rapidly deployable crude on the planet.
US exports at a peak
According to US government data released Wednesday, net crude imports (difference between imports and exports) dropped to just 66,000 barrels per day, the lowest value since weekly surveys began in 2001.
Exports, on the other hand, reached 5.2 million barrels per day, the highest level in the last seven months.
On an annual basis, the last time the United States was a net crude exporter dates back to 1943. A return to the past that, this time, is not the result of domestic policy but of a global emergency.
Europe and Asia at the forefront
The route numbers are telling. About 2.4 million barrels per day – 47% of the total exported last week – are headed to Europe, while 1.49 million (37%) went to Asia, a sharply growing share compared to 30% a year ago.
Among the main buyers are the Netherlands, Japan, France, Germany, and South Korea. But there are also brand-new developments: Greece purchased American crude for the first time in recent months, while a 500,000-barrel tanker reported heading to Turkey, which had not received US shipments for at least a year.
The price gap between Brent and WTI
Chaos in the Middle East caused the Brent premium over WTI to explode to $20.69 per barrel last month. This huge spread made American crude extremely competitive for European and Asian refineries, while simultaneously discouraging imports into the United States.
American refineries, designed to process heavier and more acidic crudes compared to the light sweet produced domestically, saw arrivals drop by over one million barrels per day, falling to 5.3 million.
Meanwhile, spot prices for physical crude destined for Europe hit a record of nearly $150 per barrel last Monday, with similar peaks also for African shipments.
Capacity limits
Despite the current enthusiasm, analysts and traders warn that the United States is rapidly approaching its export ceiling.
Matt Smith of Kpler predicts that exports will still settle around 5.2 million barrels per day in April, already pressing against monthly limits.
The theoretical maximum capacity is around 6 million, but it is constrained by limited pipeline infrastructure and ship availability. The absolute record remains 5.6 million barrels per day reached in 2023.
“The market is already testing the 5.2 million ceiling,” explains Dubai-based trader Bekzod Zukhritdinov. “Each additional barrel costs more in freight and logistics than the previous one.”
Future uncertainties
Some analysts, like Janiv Shah of Rystad, speculate that a possible release of medium-acid crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could free up additional volumes of American light sweet for export.
However, two factors risk slowing the race: the shortage of supertankers and the surge in freight rates.
Currently, according to Rohit Rathod of Vortexa, about 80 empty supertankers are converging towards the Gulf of Mexico to load crude between April and May. It will be the availability of these ships that will decide whether the United States can maintain or even increase record flows without excessively driving up costs.
