(ABC, Antonio Ramírez Cerezo, March 25, 2026)
The Spanish residential real estate market seems to have reached a turning point after a record-breaking 2025: home sales fell by 5% in January according to the INE, and notaries and registrars have been reporting a sharper slowdown for months, with declines up to 20% in Madrid, because prices have reached levels too high compared to the real income of households and demand clashes with a severe shortage of supply.
The difficulty of accessing housing is spreading to almost all social classes: despite mortgage conditions remaining among the most favorable in Europe and 18% of Spaniards still interested in buying, the structural gap between demand (which quadruples supply) and product scarcity is pushing out a growing number of potential buyers, especially in large cities where prices have experienced a true rally.
The sector anticipates a phase of normalization and moderation of transactions in 2026, with possible price corrections limited and coming from levels that are still high; the war in Iran has not yet directly impacted, but if it prolongs, it could increase skepticism and further reduce the spending capacity of households already penalized by excessively high entry costs.
Antonio Ramírez Cerezo on the market slowdown.
“The residential real estate market seems to have entered a turning point after a golden 2025. Yesterday the INE acknowledged a 5% drop in home sales in January, but other statistics have indicated market exhaustion for months. Notaries have shown declines in sales nationwide of 1.4% in October, 2.6% in November, and 1% in December.”
Antonio Ramírez Cerezo on the main cause.
“The brake may come from an exhaustion of affordability, not from macroeconomic deterioration. When the problem is not financing but the level reached by prices, part of the demand is pushed out of the market and activity moderates, even if prices do not fall. The big bottleneck is product scarcity: demand quadruples supply and this not only pushes prices up, but expels a growing number of potential buyers.”
Antonio Ramírez Cerezo on the impact in Madrid and the regions.
“In Madrid, which has experienced a true price rally, transaction volume fell by 20% year-on-year. In January, sales decreased in 12 autonomous communities, with particularly strong declines in Canarias (-21.9%) and Madrid (-19.6%).”
Antonio Ramírez Cerezo on sector prospects.
“2026 will be a year of moderation in the number of sales. Prices may undergo adjustments, but will start from very high levels and remain demanding for buyers. The war in Iran is not yet noticeable in the current market behavior, but if it prolongs, it will increase skepticism and reduce the investment and spending capacity of demand, already heavily tested by high prices and lack of supply.”
María Matos, head of studies at Fotocasa, on the current phase.
“We are entering a phase of normalization after an almost record 2025. The market will continue like this regardless of any inflationary escalation. The problem is not lack of interest, but lack of accessible product.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
