In a complex macroeconomic context oriented towards caution, with still restrictive monetary policies and a general climate of uncertainty that has limited risk appetite, cryptos have shown resilience beyond expectations.
Within the sector, over the past month, performances have been heterogeneous and strongly driven by specific narratives. Bitcoin’s dominance remained around 58%, indicating that capital stayed mainly concentrated on the primary asset, without a true “altseason” emerging. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, also supported by the launch on March 12 of the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF by BlackRock – the first crypto ETF from the world’s largest asset manager to integrate staking, a mechanism that allows investors to earn a yield by providing their assets to support network operations. The fund allocates between 70% and 95% of ETH in on-chain staking via Coinbase Prime, generating a yield that is partly distributed to investors: about 82% of the rewards, currently around 3.1% annually, are paid out monthly.
Interest in this structure was immediate: in the days following the launch, ETH rose over 20%, returning above $2,300, supported by the attractiveness of a “real” yield in a high-rate environment. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs recorded record weekly inflows of $160.8 million. This model – based on proof-of-stake assets with integrated yield in a regulated ETF – is already setting a precedent: similar applications have been submitted for Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot.
Strengthening the institutional momentum, on April 8 Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) on NYSE Arca, the first issued by a major U.S. bank. The product directly replicates Bitcoin’s price, without derivatives, and with an annual fee of 0.14%, it positions itself as the cheapest spot ETF on the market, even lower than BlackRock’s IBIT. The launch is supported by a network of 16,000 advisors managing over $6.2 trillion. On the regulatory front, March 17 marked a historic moment: the SEC and CFTC jointly published a document classifying 16 cryptocurrencies – including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana – as digital commodities, not financial instruments. The framework introduces a taxonomy in five categories and clarifies that activities such as staking, mining, and airdrops do not fall under securities regulations, significantly reducing regulatory uncertainty.
A few days later, a bipartisan agreement in the Senate unlocked the CLARITY Act, paving the way for comprehensive sector regulation, with a market-predicted probability of approval around 72% in 2026.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.5 billion in March. With over 90 ETF applications pending and a regulatory framework now among the most favorable ever, a short-term misalignment emerges: despite these developments, Bitcoin closed the month down 4%, highlighting how macro dynamics continue to outweigh fundamentals. Finally, on March 10, the Bitcoin network reached a symbolic milestone: 20 million BTC mined, over 95% of the maximum supply of 21 million. Considering that between 2.3 and 3.7 million BTC are likely lost, the actually available supply is even more limited. With only 1 million BTC left to mine over the next 114 years, Bitcoin reinforces its scarcity narrative: its inflation rate today is below 0.85%, less than half that of gold.
Flows and the divergence between gold and Bitcoin ETFs
Regulatory and market developments have driven flows, which – although far from previous peaks – have shown a significant recovery in the United States, focusing mainly on Bitcoin. On the Ethereum front, BlackRock’s new ETHB ETF absorbed most of the net inflows, indicating that the main driver was staking yield rather than a broad reallocation towards ETH.
In the first quarter of 2026, a clear divergence also emerged between gold and Bitcoin ETFs: flows into gold, about $60 billion in January, progressively declined until turning negative in March, penalized by concerns over inflation and rates. Conversely, Bitcoin ETFs – after about $8 billion in outflows in February – reversed course in March, returning to positive territory. The recovery occurred alongside improvements in the regulatory framework, particularly following the new classification as commodities.
