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druzhba

How will business between Ukraine and Hungary change with Magyar replacing Orban?

Zelensky said that the Druzhba pipeline will be repaired by the end of April. Magyar's victory gives hope to Kiev: Hungary is expected to lift the veto on the 90 billion euro European loan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Druzhba oil pipeline will be repaired by the end of April. In return, however, he expects Hungary to lift the veto on a 90 billion euro European loan to finance resistance against the Russian invasion.

During a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Zelensky explained that the Druzhba oil pipeline will not be repaired “completely, but enough to make it operational.” Ukraine’s commitment to restoring flows along this pipeline, he added, is “in line with other commitments made by European Union member states, particularly Hungary, which has blocked some decisions important to us,” namely the loan.

THE BACKGROUND

In mid-March, Ukraine had accepted the technical and economic support of the European Union to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline and restore crude oil transport to Hungary and Slovakia. In a letter to European authorities, Zelensky stated that the pumping station – that is, the facility that “pushes” the oil along the pipeline, simply put – would be restored within a month and a half.

Since last January, Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline have been suspended: Ukraine said the infrastructure was damaged by a Russian drone attack; Budapest and Bratislava, however, believed that Kiev was to blame for the interruptions, as it has an interest in reducing Moscow’s economic revenues.

Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is particularly close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has repeatedly opposed the imposition of European sanctions on Moscow.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DRUZHBA OIL PIPELINE

Also known as the “Friendship Pipeline,” the Druzhba is a Soviet-era oil pipeline about four thousand kilometers long connecting Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Germany. It is highly branched but consists of two main routes: a northern one, which crosses Poland and Germany; and a southern one, which passes through Ukraine and reaches Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

The Druzhba is a crucial infrastructure for Hungary and Slovakia, which, due to their geographical position (they are landlocked) and their historical ties with the USSR (which bound them to Soviet infrastructures), have found it more difficult to emancipate themselves from Russia for oil compared to other EU countries. As an alternative to the Druzhba, Hungary could import oil from Croatia (which has access to the sea), specifically from the port of Omisalj, from where barrels would reach Hungarian territory via the Adria pipeline. Slovakia, on the other hand, has no options other than Hungary.

Oil flows through the Druzhba averaged 200,000 barrels per day during the winter months.

DOES MAGYAR’S VICTORY CHANGE EVERYTHING?

The electoral victory of Peter Magyar, who will succeed the pro-Russian Orban, seems to indicate a political reorientation of Hungary towards more pro-European positions and thus more favorable to Ukraine. Magyar, in fact, declared that he does not want to place “principled vetoes” on sending aid to Kiev and is ready to lift the block on the 90 billion euro loan.

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