Amid geopolitical anxieties, dispersion of returns, and major structural trends, various fund managers have expressed very similar opinions in recent days: from Fideuram to Anima, from UBS to Pictet, fund managers are recalibrating their choices for the coming months, focusing on greater discipline, active management and selection, and a 24/7 radar on opportunities to monitor. These new orientations have “three worlds” to consider.
THE WORLD OF MANAGERS
The “diligent manager” has always known perfectly well that stocks outperform bonds and cash, the risk premium exists, but it is realized only if one stays invested over time; not all stocks are equal and, above all, not all markets generate the same return.
THE WORLD OF SAVERS
On the contrary, savers, especially Italian ones, do not have these simple rules clear, and this is seen in the so-called “Italian financial paradox”: we have 6,000 billion in savings of which over 20% is deposited in banks, around 10% is invested in the stock market, and the rest is in government bonds and securities (non-listed bonds). The counterproof is that in recent months PIR funds have increased, but only bond funds have grown, while equity funds have remained stagnant: an “asset allocation” opposite to the 5 rules of the “diligent manager”.
The “Italian financial paradox”, obviously, does not generate significant returns because it has zero exposure where value is created.
THE WORLD OF THE REAL ECONOMY
However, Italy is also the country where the real economy is made up of SMEs, which represent an almost unique case worldwide: small companies, very flexible, strongly oriented towards international markets and therefore moving more agilely and quickly than their foreign competitors and which, finally, if adequately financed, can grow significantly and provide meaningful returns.
The counterproof is the STAR segment of Borsa Italiana, which is the 5th largest stock exchange worldwide in terms of 15-year returns (over 290% April 2011 – April 2026), well beyond all other European and Chinese stock exchanges. A listing that is over two-thirds owned by foreign funds, a listing that in recent years has been fueled almost exclusively by translisting from the EGM (Euronext Growth Milan – formerly AIM Italia, the stock market for SMEs).
THE EGM
And this is where the EGM comes into play. The EGM is the point of maximum potential return: facing a sectoral dispersion ranging from cybersecurity to communication, from the New Space Economy to synthetic cannabis production, the greatest return opportunities arise,
it sees the presence of companies with revenues of a few million alongside companies with revenues of several hundred million and generates a so-called “selective alpha” that, to the most astute analyst and manager, can provide great returns,
a listing where real innovation, industrial niches and hidden leaders are found, that is, what generates returns in the long term.
Here, returning to the new management trends, we are in a period where these 3 worlds are aligning: discipline, active management and selection, and a 24/7 radar on opportunities to monitor on one side, and the maximum long-term equity return on the other, marry where there is the greatest managerial leverage, that is on growing SMEs, that is on the EGM.
In manager’s terms, with a market that is changing structure, less beta, more alpha, less directionality and more selection are needed: exactly what is found on the EGM, the place where returns are generated in the long term.
Geopolitical confusion can lead to rediscovering Italy’s hidden gems and, with the proper finance, enhancing them at best. A trend that should be pursued not only for the benefit of profits for Savings, but also for the growth of the country’s industrial system.
